April 7, 2014 - New York Metro Weather

Each year, as the atmospheric pattern begins to undergo a transition and wavelengths begin to change, the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms becomes a focus of the meteorological community in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. Spring, in fact, marks the beginning of “Severe Weather” season in our area — which generally has been known to begin on May 1st. There are obviously severe thunderstorm events outside of that date, but in general the most consistent potential for organized severe storms begins in May and ends in August or September.

Interestingly enough, severe thunderstorms feature some terminology and atmospheric interactions which can be very confusing not only to interpret as meteorologists, but to understand on the public level. Knowing the basics of how organized thunderstorm events develop, and how forecasters attempt to predict and quantify their potential, will help to make things a little less confusing when severe weather season comes around this year.

Thunderstorms can dump tremendous amounts of rain over small areas in a brief period of time.

The morning began in a bit of a haze — literally — as smoke from a brush fire in Southern New Jersey billowed north/northeastward toward much of New Jersey and the 5 boros of New York City. So if you’re smelling the smoke and seeing the haze this morning, in all likelihood you do not need to be alarmed. Temperatures, on the other hand, started out seasonably today in the 30’s and 40’s and will rebound a bit more into the 50’s by the afternoon hours. But an approaching storm system will end up bringing an end to any pleasant weather by this afternoon.

A low pressure system shifting through the Ohio Valley will bring a warm front and area of enhanced lift for heavy precipitation with it later today. Showers are expected to shift northward towards Southern and Central NJ by late morning, and then into Northern NJ and NYC by early to mid afternoon. If you’re headed out to the Yankees home opener this afternoon, bring an umbrella and rain gear. Although the first pitch and ceremonies likely won’t be a washout, the increasing likelihood of showers and steady rain by mid to later innings suggests things could get a little dicey in terms of potential rain delays or even postponement.

HRRR model showing heavy rain in the area this evening.

Spring Wx Awareness: Severe storms, and SPC

Period of heavy rain likely Monday, nice week ahead

Archive for date: April 7th, 2014