Finally! 70 degree temperatures possible this weekend

After a long, cold winter which was characterized by below normal temperatures and above normal snowfall, even the slightest sign of spring in 2014 has felt incredibly refreshing. Temperatures this week, so far, have warmed into the 60’s with a noticeable westerly breeze. The cold, freezing nights are becoming a memory at this point as air masses modify and the source of dramatically cold air moves farther away from our area. Things look to improve even further by late this weekend, when a warm southerly flow could warm temperatures into the 70’s.

Forecast models have been jumping around  a bit with their exact handling of multiple disturbances moving through the United States during the latter half of this week into the weekend. But recent agreement on the evolution of the pattern lends confidence to the idea that warmer air is on the way by later this weekend. After a front moves near the area on Friday afternoon and slows down a bit, allowing for a period of rain later Friday into Saturday, the front will wash out and weaken by Saturday morning. And so as a storm system develops well to our west over the Central United States, warm southerly winds will usher in milder air that will ultimately bring our temperatures near or over 70 degrees by later this weekend.

NAM model forecasting high temperatures in the mid 60's throughout the area on Saturday, with cooler air near the coast.

NAM model forecasting high temperatures in the mid 60’s throughout the area on Saturday, with cooler air near the coast.

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Pleasant, warmer weather takes hold through late week

A developing high pressure system will bring increasingly pleasant weather to the area during the middle part of this work week — and despite being in a generally active spring pattern which many disturbances moving through the country, the pleasant pattern looks to hold through at least early next week. Moderating temperatures will the story on Wednesday through Monday — with a brief interruption by a period of rain late this week into the early weekend. But high temperatures will rebound into the 60’s and potentially warmer during the next several days.

A potential wild card in the setup will be the wind direction, especially near the coasts. Cooler ocean waters this time of year can have a major impact on temperatures near the shore. Forecast models are in good agreement that Wednesday will be a true winner of a day with temperatures nearing 60 for highs in most locations and a light west/northwest wind. By Thursday, however, things change as winds turn southerly and a warmer airmass begins advocating into the region. Although marking the start of a warmer trend, the southerly winds inevitably mean a sea breeze or ocean influence along the shores of New Jersey and Long Island.

HRRR model forecasting highs near 60 this afternoon.

HRRR model forecasting highs near 60 this afternoon.

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