TD1 expected to skirt East Coast on Independence Day

A developing tropical system is expected to shift northwestward toward the Southeast US coast over the next 24 hours, strengthening from a Tropical Depression into a Tropical Storm at some point during this week. This, almost all forecast models agree upon. What happens thereafter is another story. From Thursday morning forward, there is a considerable amount of spread amongst usually reliable guidance, as the tropical system will shift northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic states of the East Coast. Eventually, an incoming trough and shortwave will kick the tropical system to the north and east, but the timing of this depends highly on the positioning of said feature during the latter half of this week.

This means that our fourth of July forecast is up in the air — and at risk of being spoiled by tropical rains. Adding to the issue is the potential for rain along the front, even if the Tropical Storm is hundreds of miles to our east. We can thank extra lift from the incoming troughing system for this, and many models are picking up on the potential for heavy rain along this band of lift from Thursday Night into Friday. After that, the track of the exact low pressure center would obviously have more significant impacts on our weather.

Forecast track of Tropical Depression 1.

Forecast track of Tropical Depression 1.

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