John Homenuk

X Class solar flare could produce bright aurora

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Two CME’s (Coronal Mass Ejections) from the sun during the last two days have astronomers brimming with excitement. And although the details aren’t totally certain, the earth-directed nature and magnitude of the solar flares have photographers racing for their cameras in hopes of capturing the elusive aurora borealis.

At 1:45pm today, an X-Class (strongest level) solar flare occurred — right on the heels of an M Class flare from Tuesday. Sunspot AR2158 is the culprit. A geomagnetic storm watch has been issued as a result of the Tuesday ejection from the sun. That  flare, despite being weaker than Wednesdays, was long duration — lasting almost 6 hours. During the last few weeks, multiple weaker CME’s have produced auroras throughout the world. The incoming aurora could be brighter, last longer, and extend farther south from the poles than its predecessor.

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John Homenuk

Strong storms possible with big cold front Thursday

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A significant cold front moving through the Central United States will approach the region late on Thursday evening, bringing a wind shift and drop in temperatures both aloft and at the surface. The cold front is associated with a major mid level disturbance, which will shift from the North Central US into Southeastern Canada. As the front shifts through our region, moderate instability and favorable wind fields could support the development of strong/severe thunderstorms.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the area in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening, citing a risk for strong winds. In addition to the winds, unseasonably high precipitable water could support heavy rain and flooding in any storms that shift through the area Thursday evening. But the severe weather threat isn’t as straightforward as it may seem.

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John Homenuk

Morning roundup: More sun, a bit warmer today

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Onshore winds and cooler temperatures made Tuesday a bit of a dreary day, especially in the evening. Although a developing coastal storm remained offshore, some bands from the system rotated inland and brought drizzle and sprinkles to the coastal areas of New Jersey and New York Tuesday Night. Decreasing moisture in multiple levels of the atmosphere on Wednesday will lead to improving conditions in much of the area, although clouds and a shower cannot be ruled out. Warmer temperatures are expected, in general, with highs in the 80’s.

A developing storm system in the Central United States will bring changing weather to our area by Thursday. Winds will shift from east/northeast to southerly by Thursday afternoon, ushering in much warmer air and allowing for an increase in humidity. A strong cold front eventually will approach the area by Thursday evening.

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