Strong thunderstorms with isolated tornadoes tonight

A very interesting meteorological setup for severe weather looks to unfold tonight. A large blocking pattern in the Arctic has forced a large trough to dig into the Midwest, and this will eventually swing through to our area, yielding a potent storm system to our northwest. Although it is often much easier to get thunderstorms during the summer when airmasses are warmer, storm systems are usually stronger during the Autumn, as there is often a larger difference in temperature — or a battleground — for a storm to form. Considering this, plus the fact that in early October the Atlantic Ocean is still quite warm, it becomes much easier for severe weather to be supported near the coast. The strong storm system will serve to bring warm, moist air from the Atlantic Ocean, yet also provide colder temperatures aloft, generating plenty of instability. Additionally, instead of the rising air for showers and storms coming from sunshine heating the ground, we are able to generate forcing for lift from that strong storm system. This gives us the basic foundation for severe weather tonight into Wednesday morning. But this situation remains quite unique.

Arguably the most impressive facet of this potential threat is the strong winds just above the ground. When winds change direction (clockwise) from the ground and up, as well as greatly increase in speed, that is when strong wind shear is created, which supports rotating thunderstorms, capable of producing strong wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. Given that surface winds will be out of the southeast, and winds just above the ground will be in excess of 50 knots out of the southwest, plenty of wind shear is generated. When this is combined with instability, those rotating updrafts can be lifted into thunderstorm clouds, and severe weather can be realized. Without the instability to lift rotating updrafts into thunderstorm clouds, thunderstorms greatly diminish in coverage. Lots of recent model data, however, shows a good combination of potentially rotating updrafts and instability, which piques our interest.

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