We hope you’ve been enjoying your weekend so far! After a very chilly start, the airmass has warmed a bit today, as winds have shifted to the southwest ahead of a developing storm and cold front. However, thickening clouds may largely prevent us from warming at the surface much more than yesterday. If clouds were to break, high temperatures could approach 50 degrees; otherwise it’s likely that we stay in the mid 40s.
Meanwhile, a strong storm system continues to develop, amplifying heights out ahead of it. This leads to strong mid-level warm air advection, and will continue to moisten the atmosphere. This warm air advection may lead to some showers developing well ahead of the low by around 11:00pm, and it may come down moderately at times in the pre-dawn hours. This will also lead to temperatures holding steady in the mid 40s.
Although there has been a warming trend with this storm, SW winds take a longer time to warm up the hills of NW NJ, and interior SE NY. This leads to the possibility of a bit of snow and ice on the onset for western Passaic and Sussex Counties in NJ, Northern Fairfield County in CT, and Orange and Putnam Counties in NY. Winter weather advisories have been issued for those areas, where up to an inch of snow is possible, and less than a tenth of an inch of ice. The timing would be from around 11:00pm through 7:00am. It may be wise to leave a bit of extra time for an early-morning commute. After 7:00am, enough warm air will be around to raise temperatures in these areas above freezing.
Some data is hinting that there may be a bit of a break in the action for a few hours from about 6:00am through 9:00am or so, where rain becomes much more scattered. This is because we’ll be in between the initial lift from the overrunning, and the core of the heavier rain from the warm conveyor belt of the storm.
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