What to expect from Wednesday’s significant Nor’Easter

An early season winter storm will impact the area on Wednesday, during one of the busiest travel days of the entire year. Making matters more difficult for forecasters is the fact that the system goes against most climatological analogs, not only including time of year but general atmospheric teleconnections as well. With a +AO value and +NAO value, the idea of this storm system producing snow in our area is quite far fetched. Yet, forecast models and the general evolution of the mid level and surface pattern argues that someone in our area will, in fact, see significant snow.

Forecast models are now in good agreement that a mid level shortwave will slide eastward from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast States on Wednesday. A trailing disturbance, surging through the Plains states, will eventually interact with the initial disturbance over the East Coast. As this occurs, a surface low pressure system will develop off the East Coast of the United States. Forming initially off the Southeast Coast near the Georgia and Carolina coasts, the storm will slide northeastward while strengthening, eventually ending up at a position near the 40/70 Benchmark.

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