John Homenuk

Substantial snowfall possible Thursday

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On the heels of a strong southwest flow event which left the area under more snow and sleet this Tuesday into Wednesday morning, a low pressure system is forecast to develop late Wednesday into Thursday and deliver another round of snow. This time, it looks more significant in terms of snowfall accumulations. As a cold front sinks south of the area Wednesday, mid level energy will shift from the Central United States eastward, forcing the development of a low pressure system from the Southeast States into the Mid Atlantic.

A thermal gradient, or baroclinic zone, will be positioned from the Ohio Valley through the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, serving as a highway for the development of precipitation. As the mid level jet dynamics are enhanced Thursday, snow will become more widespread throughout the Mid Atlantic and Northeast United States. On the northern periphery of the forcing for moderate to heavy precipitation, a band of moderate to heavy snow is likely to develop.

Programming Note: We will have a Storm Total Snowfall forecast for release around 11:00pm tonight.

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John Homenuk

Rough PM commute likely with snow, sleet expected

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A storm system developing over the Central United States will shift northward today, bringing enhanced lift for precipitation and forcing the development of snow from southwest to northeast throughout the area. As this lift shifts northeastward, snow will become steadier and heavier later this afternoon throughout the area. This snow will be falling as a result of increased lift for precipitation, owing to an increased southerly flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere as a result of warm air advection.

This warm air in the mid levels will continue to shift northeastward from the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast States, shifting precipitation from snow to sleet across much of Northern NJ and NYC by later tonight. In the low levels, however, cold air will remain stout — creating the potential for not only sleet, but ice accretion as well if the depth of the mid level warm layer becomes wide enough to support freezing rain. This will create treacherous conditions on roadways tonight across Northern NJ and the suburbs of NYC in SE NY and Connecticut.

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