October Begins With Moderating Temperatures

For those of you who are not ready for true autumn conditions just yet, good news is in store, at least for the next week. The upper level low that had previously been giving our area lots of clouds, showers, and cool temperatures will depart to the north of the area and bring moderating temperatures behind it. Temperatures should generally run several degrees above normal throughout the upcoming work week.

This week should also be drier than the past few days have been, with some days being quite sunny. However, there may still be some showers around from time to time, mainly for Tuesday and Wednesday.

00z GFS Four-Panel Plot, 500mb Top Left, Surface Top Right, 700mb Bottom Left, 850mb Bottom Right, Showing The Warm Weather Pattern, Valid for 2pm Tuesday, October 2nd.

The departing upper level low will help bring clearing conditions for today. Additionally, as one can see from the image, we have a strong 500mb “cut-off” low in the southern states, which is when a storm cuts itself off from the jet stream. This makes a weather pattern slow down, as the jet stream is not moving this particular feature of the pattern. Since the jet stream becomes separate from the storm system, all of the chilly air remains bottled up in Canada. The cut-off low also helps to usher in warm air out ahead of it, as our 500mb heights continue to rise with a southwest flow at that level. There is also a ridge in the Atlantic which helps to provide warmth, but also provides some wind flow from the Ocean — this will all combine to provide warmth with some moisture. Once we move into Tuesday, the disturbance to our southwest will be moving northward, perhaps ushering in a few showers for Tuesday and Wednesday. Fortunately, however, this disturbance will move well to the north of our area by Thursday, providing more sunshine — with enough sunshine, temperatures could approach 80 degrees for much of the Metro region on Thursday and Friday.

(Click “Read More” below to see your Monday, Monday Night, Tuesday, and Tuesday Night forecast, along with a quick preview of next weekend and beyond) 

Monday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 70s and light westerly winds.

Monday Night: Increasing clouds, with temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60. Perhaps a shower as daybreak approaches. Light southwesterly winds.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. It will not be a washout by any means, but have the umbrella handy and keep an eye on the radar. Temperatures should get up to the mid 70s.

Tuesday Night: The showers will become more frequent than they were during the day, and perhaps a scattered heavy downpour as well. There may be some breaks, though. Temperatures should only fall to the mid 60s.

Looking ahead a bit more, there is the potential for the first true autumn cold front to sweep through the area on Saturday. Although it is a bit far in time to the point where modeling data could change, there are many indicators that show a very crisp air mass entering the northern tier of the United States, with some of it perhaps ejecting to the east coast. The core of the cold for next Sunday and the next week after that would probably remain to our west, but it should definitely feel a lot colder than it has been, as the change in seasons really begins to show in the prevailing weather pattern. This cold air mass could be preceded by some thunderstorms on Saturday, as well.