Forecast: Rain returns to dampen Monday

A pleasant weekend will give way to a damp Monday, with rain chances increasing especially during the second half of the day. The culprit will be a low pressure system, developing along a front to the east of our area. The result in terms of sensible weather will be the development of showers with periods of steady rain possible especially along the coast. Forecast models are still struggling somewhat with agreeing on the area of heaviest rainfall relative to New York City, but there seems to be at least some consensus that the bulk of it will remain east of the city over the New Jersey coast and Long Island. In fact, some models show very small rain amounts over the interior areas. Temperatures on Monday will remain warmer with humidity levels still up, with highs in the lower 70’s. Things will change by mid-week behind the system.

NAM forecast model showing a period of moderate rain over parts of the area on Monday afternoon. Graphic shows accumulated rain in the 3 hours before 8pm.

Monday: Partly cloudy with a few showers to start, and warm temperatures will still be in place throughout the area. Steady rain developing during the afternoon, especially NYC and points-east with the storm offshore. Showers continuing through evening before dissipating as a front crosses the area. Winds turn west and temperatures will drop by late-evening. High temperatures will top out in the 70’s during the early afternoon.

Monday Night: Early in the evening, rain will be likely throughout the area especially east of NYC as the storm system passes near our area. Forecast models show best rain chances along the NJ Shore and Long Island/CT. Late overnight/early Tuesday morning…expect gradual clearing with temperatures falling into the 50’s behind the storm system — with west winds continuing. Sweatshirts will be back in play if you’re headed out at any point during the evening hours.

Keep reading for more details on the forecast for the remainder of the week…

Tuesday: Cool, partly cloudy, and west winds continuing. Lower humidity, feeling more like autumn once again. High temperatures reaching only into the lower 60’s, and possibility remaining in the 50’s over the interior.

Looking ahead Wed-Fri: Things begin to warm up again by late week as the trough over the area on Tuesday begins to lift out quickly. High temperatures will increase to the mid 60’s on Wednesday, and possibly get back into the 70’s by the end of the week. A chance of rain returns on Friday as another frontal boundary nears the area as models bring a strong storm from the Central US to our Northeast and slow the front down near our area. Stay tuned for more developments as the week goes on.