Strong cold front could bring heavy rain, high wind early Friday

NAM Model showing a line of showers and embedded heavy rain crossing the area early Friday along a strong cold front.

A very strong cold front is expected to pass through the area this evening into early Friday morning, and could bring heavy rain and strong gusty winds with it. In addition, a sharp drop in temperatures and shift in wind direction will occur behind it as a briefly warmer and more humid airmass is washed away to the east. Forecast models indicate the potential for a low-topped line of heavy rain and possibly even an embedded storm or two. A very strong low level jet (winds in the lower levels in the atmosphere, but above the surface) will pass over the region, juxtaposed with this area of potential heavy rain/storms. Despite an inversion, if any heavy rain/storms can mix down these winds effectively, the potential for strong gusts of wind exists. The temperature drop should be dramatic as well — with forecast models indicating a period of time where temperatures are in the 50’s in NYC (ahead of the front) and in the 20’s over Central PA (behind the front). After the front passes on Friday morning, strong and blustery west winds should continue throughout the day despite clearing conditions. By Friday afternoon, some snow showers are possible throughout the area as the strong winds both at the surface and aloft advect in a new, cold airmass.

Rest of Today: Mostly cloudy, temperatures topping out in the mid 40’s. Southeast winds increasing by evening.

Tonight into Friday Morning: Showers likely, with a period of very heavy rain after midnight into the early morning hours. Temperatures should rise overnight into the 50’s by the early AM hours. Then, heavy rain and strong gusty winds are possible with the passage of the front. Overnight low near 44.

Friday: Showers early, then clearing somewhat by late morning. Clouds should return by afternoon, with cool temperatures and strong westerly winds. A chance of snow showers by afternoon. West winds gusting over 20 mph.