Forecast: Periods of light snow, some accumulations on the island

Snowfall forecasts have come to verify too high (if only slightly) so far with the significant coastal system which moved off the Mid-Atlantic Coast yesterday. Washington DC, for example, recieved very little snow accumulation despite forecasts

Our Storm Total Snowfall Forecast from Thursday through Friday afternoon.

for up to 10 inches of new powder. The culprit? Warm surface temperatures and less than ideal precipitation rates. The same was true in our area, with forecast models trending farther south and east in the 24 hours before the storms arrival. The lighter precipitation meant no dynamic cooling, and not enough snow to stick on the warm surfaces. The storm isn’t finished yet, however, and it will hook up with another disturbance dropping near the area tonight to provide another burst of snow — specifically east of New York City over Connecticut and Long Island.

The burst of snow will feature the potential for some heavier bands over Connecticut and Long Island, with the potential for 1 to 3 inches of new snow. Some suburban locations of Northeast Long Island have already reported near 2 inches of snow. Although the snow could reach New York City, the light precipitation rates suggest the snow will have little chance of sticking and accumulating, so our forecast calls for just a Trace at best in the Metro Area. You can check out our snowfall map for the next 24 hours to the right, which shows the expected potential for around an inch of snow over interior Northeast NJ and Southeast New York, continuing into Connecticut and Long Island. The best chance for the higher amounts of the range (closer to 3 or maybe 4 inches) is over Northeast Long Island.

Stay tuned to our blog and Twitter/Facebook accounts for up to the minute details on the snow this evening and overnight.