Forecast: Weekend brings long awaited warmup for some

NAM model’s forecast temperatures Sunday afternoon. Notice the sharp gradient along the coast. Much of NJ is in the middle 60’s, while the NJ Shore and Long Island are in the 40’s and 50’s.

For now, the days of crisp winter-like cold air and blustery northwest winds will become a thing of the past. Building heights aloft and a moderating airmass will provide the foundation for a warming trend in temperatures this weekend, beginning on Friday. As a storm system skims our area and passes offshore (providing some showery conditions early Friday morning), clouds will thin by Friday afternoon and the sun is expected to return. Temperatures will rise into the upper 50’s to near 60 for highs. The air will feel especially warm when compared to the past several days of below-normal temperatures. Coastal regions will have trouble warming up — as south-southwest wind trajectory still brings winds off the cool ocean waters.

It won’t be a direct transition to warmth through next week– and it won’t be all fun and games near the coast.  Forecast models are in disarray with the positioning of a warm front this weekend, which will make its way towards the area on Saturday and Sunday. Saturday looks to be a bit cooler than Friday behind a frontal boundary (with the warm front still to our south). But as the front lifts north towards and through our area by Sunday and Monday, temperatures will make another rebound. Forecast models are in good agreement on much warmer temperatures on Sunday and Monday, including highs in the middle 60’s on both days away from the coast. Thereafter, it appears the front may sag back south towards our weekend by the middle of next week…with the chance of showers and clouds returning.

Friday: Cloudy early with a chance of showers, then becoming partly sunny. Warm, with a high in the upper 50’s to near 60. Light west winds.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy and colder once again, with a low in the 30’s. North-northwest winds around 10 miles per hour.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with highs in the lower 50’s. West winds early, turning southwest by evening.

Sunday: Partly sunny and warmer, with highs in the lower 60’s. Warmer across New Jersey, with highs in the mid to upper 60’s possible. Cooler near the coast, with highs only in the 50’s. Southwest winds around 15 miles per hour.