Nor’easter, cooler air, and the latest on Dorian

A weakened frontal boundary settled off the Mid Atlantic coast will serve as a highway for a developing low pressure system today. Despite being weak and progressive, the Nor’easter will shift from the Mid Atlantic coast to a position near or off of Cape Cod through Friday. The result, in terms of sensible weather, for our area? More clouds, a cooler northerly flow, and a chance of showers especially along the coast.

The cooler temperatures, clouds and dew points that settled into the area on Thursday have created quite a stir throughout the meteorological community. Not without reason, thought as temperatures fell into the 40’s in much of the interior Northeast early Thursday morning. Parts of elevated New England saw temperatures drop into the upper 30’s! (Just a reminder, it’s July 24th).

After the system shifts northeastward this weekend, temperatures should rebound more towards normal with highs in the low to middle 80s. Conditions look to become more pleasant, with the return of more sun, by this weekend as well.

Dorian still chugging westward: Tropical Storm Dorian, which formed officially Wednesday morning, continued to move west through the Atlantic on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds increased slightly to 60mph, and the system remained compact and small but rather well organized.

Major questions still exist in regards to the eventual track and intensity of Dorian as she shifts west. Forecast models agree that a large and expansive Atlantic Ridge will remain in place. But the important feature, instead of the ridge itself, will be the periphery of the said ridge — as the center of Dorian will likely slide along its fringes. Model guidance indicates that the system may have a slightly higher than normal chance of impacting the US Coast as she is forced west into the Southwest Atlantic and then may potentially recurve northward around the west side of the ridge.

Intensity forecast continue to remain mostly meager on forecast guidance through the next 3-5 days, with most models keeping Dorian at moderate Tropical Storm levels. Increased wind shear by Day 3 may hinder further development of the system as it shifts west — adding further uncertainty to the forecast.

As always, stay tuned over the next few days. Despite the fact that the system is several days away from potentially impacting land, we will continue to provide updates both on our web page and social media outlets.