Forecast: New week starts cool, ends warm

The new work week began with another in a series of colder than normal mornings, as low temperatures fell into the upper 20s and lower 30s across much of the interior on Monday morning. The city and urban areas remained a bit warmer, although still chilly, with lows dropping near 40 degrees. Monday will turn out to be a pleasant autumn day, as temperatures warm into the upper 50’s to lower 60’s by afternoon. A light southwest breeze will make it feel plenty comfortable, and less chilly than the past several days which featured windier and cooler conditions.

Northeast US Surface Analysis and observations from the morning of October 28, 2013 showing high pressure in control and a cold front approaching.

A cold front dropping southward through New England, however, will provide a reinforcing shot of cooler air by later Monday. Associated with a disturbance over Southeast Canada, the front isn’t expected to feature any precipitation. The wind shift, however, will be noticeable. By Tuesday, winds will have swung around once again behind the front, and will be blowing out of the north. High temperatures will once again struggle into the lower to middle 50’s — making Monday seem like a much warmer day in comparison.

Changes by late week: A transition out of the colder and drier pattern finally occurs by late week, as a storm system moves through the North-Central United States. A warm front will surge northeastward through the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and eventually into the Northeast by Wednesday Night and Thursday — as the forecast takes a bit of an unsettled turn. Showers look to be a good possibility, at least on the morning of Halloween (this Thursday). But by later in the afternoon, if the warm front can push northeastward into New England, southwest winds will take over — and skies will clear.

More importantly, a new airmass will be pushing into the area, with 850mb temperatures exceeding 10 C. For the sake of comparison, 850mb temperatures this past weekend fell between -4 and -6 C. Accordingly, models indicate that with a little bit of sun, temperatures could rise into the 70’s on Thursday and Friday. It remains to be seen if clouds and showers will hamper this potentially warm and pleasant weather. But at the very least, it looks warmer than the past week — and a bit unsettled — by weeks end.