Ice Jam continues, wintry mix tomorrow morning, and a major storm on Saturday
The ice jam along the Delaware River has continued to worsen, as Flash Flood Watches have been upgraded to Flash Flood Warnings in Mercer County in New Jersey, and Bucks County in Pennsylvania. Flooding has been reported at Route 29, and some roads have been closed. For more details on the Flood Warning, click this link. Otherwise, a Flash Flood Watch still exists in Mercer, Northwest Burlington, Philadelphia, and Lower Bucks County. For more information on ice jams and their potential severity, check out our article from yesterday, and today’s video discussion, which also highlights the storm potential on Saturday.
Moving forward to the weather for the rest of today, it certainly feels more comfortable than it has been with sunny skies and temperatures around or just above freezing. Continued warm air advection will prevent temperatures from dropping too much during the overnight. However, the warm and moist air approaching the still relatively cool airmass will help to trigger a weak warm front. Out ahead of this warm front, light precipitation will be falling and considering temperatures will still be around freezing, a light round of wintry precipitation can be expected late tonight and tomorrow morning.
Today’s RGEM model valid for 6am tomorrow morning shows some light snow passing just to the north of NYC.
It’s a bit of a tricky forecast due to the fact that the precipitation is relatively light, scattered, and disorganized — so the exact location and timing of precipitation is uncertain. The earlier it arrives, the more wintry the scenario; the later it arrives, the rainier the scenario. Warm air moving in both aloft and at the surface will eventually change any light precipitation over to liquid by later Friday. Today’s 12z RGEM model shows the snow remaining to our north, with only a few passing flurries for NYC. However, today’s European model showed the early-morning batch of precipitation a tad further south, which allows our area to pick up a coating to 1″ of snow.
Moving forward a few hours later, the RGEM model suggests things will be getting a bit icy.
Today’s 12z RGEM valid for 11am tomorrow morning shows some significant icing for the NYC area.