Week begins with transient weather

It’s almost as if “roller coaster” has become an insufficient way to describe the pattern changes that our area has observed over the past several weeks. This past 5-7 day period was no different, as we transitioned from the Polar Vortex with sub-zero wind chills to a strong southerly flow and temperatures in the 60’s. After a cold frontal passage on Saturday evening, however, things have settled down a bit. Monday will end up relatively benign with temperatures slightly above average — and minimal precipitation.

The changes begin by late Monday, however, as increasingly thick clouds will begin to stream into the area from the southwest. A mid level disturbance approaching the area from the Mississippi Valley will be moving quickly off to the northeast, and minimal amplification is expected with no significant low pressure system. Nevertheless, unsettled weather with clouds and showers will grab the reigns of the forecast from Monday Night into Tuesday. Above normal temperatures will eventually be shunted east of the area once again as more wintry air moves in behind the system by midweek.

NAM model showing the development of widespread showers and clouds throughout the area late Monday Night into Tuesday.

The forecast takes a bit of a complicated turn by mid-week. Multiple mid-level disturbances will begin shifting southeastward from Central Canada to the Northeast Coast, thanks in part to an amplifying ridge on the West Coast of the United States. While the trough’s currently look to be a hair too far north for any major amplification or nor’easters, the potential for the development of progressive “clipper” systems looks high.

The first in a potential parade of them could come on Wednesday, when forecast models indicate the potential for an area of precipitation moving up the East Coast. However brief and light, a few inches of snow are possible in some areas should temperatures remain cold enough. Models are somewhat split on the development of the system and placement of precipitation, so confidence remains low. But we’re continually monitoring the potential and will keep you all updated as we move into the new work week.