PM Roundup: Increasing clouds, dreary Saturday

The big cold front came through last night and gave way to an absolutely gorgeous Friday, as temperatures rose into the mid to upper 70s with very low humidity and crystal clear skies. However, this is about to change, as a storm system will be developing throughout the evening, and affecting us tomorrow. The culprit is a rigorous system in the middle of the atmosphere pushing through the Great Lakes, which will help create copious lift for precipitation. Ultimately, the storm system will not become a truly organized Nor’easter, so we do not expect much in the way of heavy rain. But the fact that we have a storm system that will not be relying on convection leads us to have relatively high confidence in periods of rain throughout the day tomorrow. That being said, the lack of surface organization creates some uncertainty as to whether we will get around one tenth of an inch of rain, or closer to a half inch.

Today’s 18z NAM showing a period of light to moderate rain throughout the area tomorrow afternoon.

Tomorrow morning doesn’t look too bad — just cloudy with occasional sprinkles. Most of the rain should fall during the afternoon. Gradual clearing should commence tomorrow evening, as temperatures fall into the 50s in most locations, and perhaps into the 40s in some suburbs. Sunday looks to be a gorgeous day, with temperatures rising into the mid 70s and plenty of sunshine. Sunday night into Monday morning looks to be the chilliest night of the season; here is the forecast from the 12z GFS — though the model is probably a bit chillier than reality.

In addition to the coming cold temperatures, here are some other interesting links in the world of weather:

1) Recent solar flares have led to the potential of the sighting of the Aurora Borealis. The X-Class Solar Flare reaching Earth too early may reduce our chances to see it, however. For more information, check out our recent article giving everything you need to know. 

2) A weak tropical wave is beginning to form just off the coast of Florida. The eventual strength of this system is very uncertain, though a major hurricane is unlikely. Here are some of the latest forecast tracks by some computer models. 

3) While this El Nino has not progressed as forecast, and will most likely not be a super strong one, there are signs that it may just be delayed, but not denied. The Climate Prediction Center shows how warm water continues to build just below the surface of the Equatorial Pacific, which may emerge to the surface. This could allow waters to warm enough to get an El Nino back on track.

Have a great weekend, everyone!