Snow showers tomorrow, chilly and potentially active next week
After this morning’s brutally cold weather with single digit temperatures and Wind Chills between -10 and -20, we have warmed up relatively nicely and are approaching 20 degrees. Still, though, it is quite chilly, and with that comes another chance of snow tomorrow morning.
Behind our strong cold blast is another Arctic cold front and shortwave in southern Canada, which will move towards our area tonight. Out ahead of that system, our winds will turn to the SW this evening. This is good news because the SW flow will actually allow our temperatures to slowly rise later this evening and through the overnight. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 20s tomorrow morning — still cold — but not nearly as brutal as this morning.
However, the system will be strong enough to promote a strong SW flow throughout a decent chunk of the atmosphere with a nicely carved trough, leading to an increase in winds once again. Winds could increase to between 20 and 25mph tonight, with gusts over 30mph. This means that Wind Chills will still be in the teens.
As the Arctic cold front approaches as well as its associated potent shortwave, an organized area line of snow showers is possible for the area, generally between 5:00am and 10:00am.
The best lifting is just to the north and northeast of NYC, where a quick 1-2″ could fall. Elsewhere, amounts generally between a dusting and an inch are possible. It may be wise to leave a bit of extra time for your morning commute, as a period of snow with slick roads is possible. High temperatures tomorrow will generally be around 30 or in the low 30s.
Once the front comes through, winds will shift back to the west and northwest, and temperatures will drop again. It won’t be as cold as last night, but temperatures will fall back into the low to mid teens, and with continued blustery conditions, wind chills will be in the single digits.
High temperatures on Saturday will be in the low to mid 20s. Afterward, the atmosphere will slowly moderate in temperature, but never become completely warm. When Arctic air departs, we often have to watch for energy behind it trying to run into the leftover cold air. This is exactly what we are watching for around Monday of next week.
Today’s Canadian model valid for Monday afternoon shows a wave of energy and moisture in the Tennessee Valley overrunning the leftover cold air. Snow, ice, and rain are all possible early next week from this (PSU E-Wall).
Some data, including the Canadian model shown above, shows another area of high pressure developing to our north as moisture from the south streams from southwest to northeast, towards our area. The details still need to be ironed out, but the potential for snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain, or a combination of all of those are possible on Monday. Light to moderate accumulations are possible.
Afterward, we are watching for the potential of another storm around next Thursday. There is plenty of uncertainty here, as each piece of guidance is handling the energy differently. But there is expected to be an amplifying ridge axis out west, and energy diving down the downstream side of the ridge.
Today’s GFS model valid for the middle of next week shows the main piece of energy hanging back, which means the storm for later next week does not come to fruition.
Notice how on today’s GFS model, there is a nice ridge axis out west, and a developing pool of moisture to the south, as well as chilly air remaining in our area. However, the main piece of energy gets hung back in the southwest, partly because we still have Pacific energy crashing into our ridge, changing the strength and orientation of the ridge, which helps the energy to hold back. That energy needs to eject eastward in order for the storm threat to be real. The European model, for example, ejects that energy eastward, and phases it with the energy diving down into the Plains and Midwest. This would lead to a possible moderate to major snowstorm on Thursday.
If the ridging out west gets beaten down a bit like the GFS has it, then the energy is going to get held back, and a big storm will not be had. Instead, a storm out to sea or only light precipitation would result. The seasonal trend has been to beat down the ridge out west, so this scenario would not surprise us. However, the weather pattern is a bit different this time around, which means that a bigger snowstorm for the end of next week is still possible.
Regardless, although the weather will not be nearly as cold next week, chilly air will still be around, with two chances of wintry precipitation — one on Monday, and one on Thursday.