Rain Likely Today…Colder Weather Arriving This Weekend
Today will be a dreary day. This morning will start with some clouds, fog, and a few light showers around. Then periods of steadier rain will arrive with a cold front this afternoon and evening. Model guidance shows a strengthening southeasterly low-level jet between 40kt-50kts and high precipitable water values over 1.30″, indicating high atmospheric moisture content. This will likely result in rainfall being heavy at times this afternoon and evening.
Model guidance shows little instability. But an isolated thunderstorm can’t be ruled out, considering the warm air advection and forced ascent occurring. Rainfall totals of 1″ – 2″ of are possible in parts of the region. The upslope flow with southeast winds could help enhance rainfall totals over higher elevations north and west of New York City as well. The stronger winds aloft are not expected to mix down to the surface; however, with a tightening pressure gradient, winds could gust in excess of 30mph in spots — especially near the shore or with any isolated thunderstorm.