Weekly Outlook 11/22-11/28: Cold Start…Mild Finish

A cold front with limited moisture available will move slowly east of the region today. A wave of low pressure developing off the Southeast Coast will stay well offshore as well. However, our area will fall underneath the right-rear entrance region of a 130kt+ upper-level jet streak with an amplifying upper-level trough associated with the cold front. In simpler terms, this enhances lift in our region — aiding in the development of showers later today and tonight. A period of steady light or moderate rain is even possible for Eastern Long Island and Southern New Jersey, if the low offshore comes close enough.

With the offshore coastal storm aiding in the development of clouds as well, temperatures will stay generally capped in the 40s to lower 50s. Cold air advection increases during the day as well, which will bring temperatures down into the 30s and 40s by later this evening throughout the area.

Clearing skies are expected for all areas later tonight, as high pressure builds into region. Temperatures will fall into lower to middle 30s over the coastal plain. This could be first low temperature at or below freezing for the season in New York City. The inland areas and some of the pine barrens could drop back into middle to upper 20s.

The weather trends even colder by Monday as a cold airmass moves in aloft. Specifically, 850mb temperatures will be around -10C during the day. High temperatures may struggle reach the lower to middle 40s in afternoon. These temperatures are at least 5 to 10 degrees below normal. With calm winds and clear skies on Monday Night, ideal radiational cooling conditions are expected. Low temperatures by Tuesday morning could be in the upper 20s to lower 30s in New York City and coastal sections, with lows more likely in the middle to upper 20s over inland areas and the pine barrens.

During the day Tuesday, 850mb temperatures and heights will begin rising as the progressive weather pattern continues. Light northwest downslope winds along with sunshine will also help surface temperatures rise into middle to upper 40s in the afternoon. A moderating trend in temperatures continues later in the week, with an upper-level trough digging over the Western US and upper-level ridge building over the Eastern US. At the surface, high pressure will remain in control as it begins to shift east into the Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday. Mostly sunny skies are expected again on Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with light southeast winds.

A mixture of sunshine and clouds in store for Thanksgiving Day. 850mb temperatures rising to around 4°C will support surface high temperatures in the middle to upper 50s. At this time, winds don’t appear to be an issue for the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade balloons. Winds will likely be very light out of the southeast.

Black Friday looks even warmer with 850mb temperatures around 6°C, with more southerly winds and more sunshine likely. High temperatures are likely to at least be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The latest GFS model run this morning is even warmer with temperatures in lower to middle 60s on Friday. Temperatures could be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Some pleasant weather for may be in store for the Christmas shoppers heading to the stores early this year.

The upper-level trough over the Western US finally works its way east next weekend. A cold front with the trough will pass through the area Friday night and Saturday, with a chance of more showers over the region. High temperatures ahead of this cold front are still expected to remain above normal–in the upper 50s to lower 60s at least for Saturday. Another transient cold, dry airmass will settle into the region be behind this front for rest of the holiday weekend.

Overall the weather pattern this week is still progressive and rather benign. A shift from below normal temperatures early in the week to above normal temperatures late in the week will be the main story this week. No significant weather-related hazards or travel issues are anticipated for the Thanksgiving holiday in our region. Stay tuned for more updates here during this upcoming week. Happy Thanksgiving!