Miguel Pierre

Long-Range Outlook: Late November and December; December 1 Storm Threat

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Welcome to our long-range outlook for the next 30-45 days. We hope to provide these outlooks with more in-depth analysis and discussion about every Monday and Thursday. The discussion is divided into several topics to cover all aspects of the model guidance and climate indicators.

For today, we discuss the overall pattern and what to expect going into late November and through much of December.

1. Model Guidance Discussion

The 500mb pattern this week will feature a North Atlantic ridge being suppressed by a deep polar vortex developing over Greenland and Iceland. This is a classic +AO/NAO pattern that typically supports a strong ridge for the East Coast. A -EPO ridge forming over the the Northeast Pacific and Alaska will cause a trough to dig into the Western US. In response, a ridge will build over the Central and Eastern US.

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John Homenuk

Fair, seasonable weather likely on Thanksgiving

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A progressive weather pattern, which has brought us unsettled weather during the middle part of the week many times this past month, will finally give us a break. Fair and seasonable weather is expected for Thanksgiving, with no significant weather hazards anticipated during the major travel days before or after the holiday, at least in our part of the country. Precipitation won’t make its way back into the forecast until later Friday Night into Saturday morning, when a cold front crosses the area.

Thanksgiving week will be marked by a transition back to normal temperatures, after a very cold start. Temperatures in the 20’s on Monday morning will only reach into the 40’s during the afternoon, as a very cold airmass settles in to the region. Temperatures aloft are quite cold, even for this time of year, and we certainly will feel the effects of that. The blustery northwest winds during the day won’t help, either.

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