Monday Musings: Warmer, unsettled, cutoff low

So far, Spring 2016 has been absent, despite calendar arguing otherwise. The trend looks to continue this week, and as we look forward into the medium range, forecast models suggest it may continue even further into next weekend. While we aren’t quite looking at snow, the weather looks likely to be cooler than normal — all thanks to an unsettled pattern through midweek, and then a cutoff low which may impact the area thereafter. The story begins on Monday, as a southwesterly flow brings increasing clouds and the potential for showers.

A frontal system will swing through the area on Tuesday, with a period of steady rain possible along the frontal boundary. While the end of the week may be warmer and drier, the potential for a cutoff low exists later this weekend. This idea gains credence given the presence of high latitude blocking, extending essentially from Greenland into the Western Atlantic Ocean, acting like a “wall” to prevent any disturbances from escaping. But, more on that later. Here are the highlights to start the week:

• Today looks likely to be warmer, but cloudy and more unsettled. While no widespread steady or heavy rain is expected, showers are likely, especially later in the day.
• Some clearing is likely on Tuesday as a warm front lifts north of the area. While partly cloudy skies will be brief, they’ll allow for warmer temperatures.
• By Tuesday afternoon and evening, a cold front approaches the area, with steady rain likely in parts of the area as it comes through.
• A cutoff low is possible later this week into next weekend, but the exact location of the low remains uncertain. We’ll be monitoring it over the next few days.