Coastal storm further south, some showers still possible

Most of the region is under overcast skies this afternoon with low pressure organizing along the Virginia or North Carolina coast.. We had anticipated a closer track to region with this storm with more rainfall today.. However latest models have this low tracking further south and east of the area. A balloon launched sounding over Brookhaven, NY this morning also showed very dry air and subsidence in lower to middle levels. This is causing rain from the southwest to evaporate or fall apart before reaching New York City metro area.

Clouds will still dominate rest of the day. Some showers are still possible with this afternoon and through tonight with the shortwave energy with the 500mb trough swing through region and coastal storm brushing the area. But heavy rainfall is no longer anticipated for the most of the region. For Mets fans, Mets vs Brewers game at Citifield later today should go with only a slight chance of rain delay from a shower. Visit our Sportcast page for more information.

Some of the models, particularly the NAM and GGEM, have been showing this coastal storm track further northwest with more rain and wind for region. This is because they showe  500mb trough becoming more amplified and even closing off downstream of strong ridge over the Midwest and Great Lakes. These models have trended towards other guidance that have been showing a broader, less amplified 500mb trough. The lessening of amplification and consolidation of energy along this trough, can be attributed to a somewhat progressive pattern with a weak blocking ridge over the Atlantic.

The coastal storm will be pulling further away from region later tonight. Drier from low-level northerly winds causes showers taper off later tonight for most of region. But some cloud cover will remain over region later tonight with the 500mb trough is linger behind. Temperatures will drop in the lower to middle 50s overnight. Sunday’s weather looks to be improving for much of the region. Clouds will likely break for more sunshine during the day with subsidence behind low pressure and cut-off low forming form to the south. Only small chance for scattered showers, mostly well northwest of New York City. Temperatures will likely rise to near 70 degrees in the afternoon.

More unsettled weather will return to region early next week with the cut-off low slow moving northward up the coast. Before much warmer weather likely arrives later next week. Premium members stay tuned for more updates weather this weekend and next week.