Major rains possible through Tuesday, may impact fireworks

A well advertised frontal boundary, and associated low pressure system, are forecast to move toward the area from Monday Night into Tuesday — and it may impact fireworks displays. While forecast models have fluctuated a bit with the exact placement of the storm system, the overall signal for heavy rainfall potential has been quite strong. Over the past 24 hours, models have come into further focus in regards to the eventual evolution of the storm system in our area.

A large plume of moisture will move northward through the Southeast States, eventually meeting up with a very pronounced frontal boundary and temperature/pressure gradient from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic states. Meanwhile, a disturbance moving along this gradient will provide ample lift for precipitation to develop. The juxtaposition of these features will lead to steady rainfall, spreading from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic on Monday.

Expected timing of rainfall on Independence Day. This graphic will be updated.

Expected timing of rainfall on Independence Day. This graphic will be updated.

By later Monday afternoon, a low pressure system is forecast to develop through the aforementioned areas, further enhancing atmospheric lift and allowing moisture to surge northward. As the low pressure system moves toward the Northeast states, increasing amounts of moisture and lift will push toward parts of New Jersey by the mid to late afternoon hours. Rainfall may begin in parts of Southwestern NJ around dinner time on Independence Day, impacting fireworks displays.

The lift associated with this disturbance will shift northeastward, encompassing New Jersey later in the evening hours and eventually New York City later in the evening and closer to midnight. Enhanced areas of heavy rain are possible from late Monday Evening into Tuesday morning as some atmospheric instability develops and works with the areas of stronger lift to produce very heavy rain.

Forecast models show a ridge building toward the area by later this week with heat and severe weather possible.

Forecast models show a ridge building toward the area by later this week with heat and severe weather possible.

The rainfall will eventually push northeastward on Tuesday morning, with some clearing anticipated throughout the area by Tuesday afternoon and evening. The areas of heaviest rainfall remain somewhat uncertain, but tropical moisture and enhanced lift suggest the potential for some prolific rain amounts — possibly in excess of 3″ — where more enhanced localized banding can occur. These are likely to occur within embedded thunderstorms with torrential downpours.

After the rainfall shifts through the area on Tuesday, the pattern will take an even more active turn. A building ridge will allow for increased opportunities for heat by late week, and disturbances riding along the northern periphery of that ridge will bring chances for strong and severe thunderstorms to our area by late week into next weekend. Strap in!