Sunday Overview: Tropical rains, flooding likely again

Tropical moisture and just enough lift combined to support the development of torrential rains on Saturday, with localized flash flooding reported both in New Jersey and throughout the Mid Atlantic. Much of the same is forecast on Sunday, with a warm front nearing the area during the afternoon. This may be particularly true across Northeastern New Jersey, where a convergence zone will allow for moisture to “pool” along a frontal zone.

This allows for a few things to occur, but most notably, it juxtaposes lift and moisture to develop torrential rains. With plenty of anomalous moisture still available throughout the area, the recipe could be there once again for flash flooding in localized areas. Upwards of 2″ of rainfall in relatively short periods of time could cause problems, especially in flood prone areas.

The last culprit in the overall setup is the lack of deep shear in the atmosphere, which means thunderstorms or even heavy showers that form simply won’t move much. Instead, they can meander along these frontal boundaries and areas of convergence, making the flooding potential that much worse.

Forecast models this afternoon suggest that showers and storms will develop, particularly from Central to Northeast New Jersey, and may meander over the same regions for prolonged periods of time. This raises the concern for localized flash flooding in those areas, especially given the moisture content mentioned above.

Stay tuned to the Premium Dashboard over the next several hours for constant updates — and check back to see if the Live Blog has been activated around 12pm.