Heat returns, scattered severe storms Saturday afternoon

A transitional ridge will build into the area from Friday Night into Saturday, with warming temperatures and increasing moisture expected. While this ridge won’t be necessarily large, it will bring much warmer air in both the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere. This will lead to increasing instability late Friday into Saturday, ahead of an approaching cold front which will be lingering to our north over Southeast Canada.

This front will begin sagging southward on Saturday morning and afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms likely to develop near the area during the early afternoon. Moderate instability in the atmosphere is expected to juxtapose with favorable wind shear to support the development of these strong and severe storms, which will sink southeastward through NJ, NYC and Long Island.

 

The main threat with storms looks likely to be gusty winds, but lightning and heavy rain will be possible as well in the highly moist atmosphere. The storms will eventually shift southeastward toward the area shores before moving off the coast by the early to middle evening hours.

The overall threat for severe thunderstorms seems likely to be limited by wind shear in some levels of the atmosphere as well as morning clouds, which may inhibit the development of more expansive instability in the atmosphere. The lack of a strong disturbance in the atmosphere also creates some doubt as to the coverage of the storms.

Nevertheless, a few strong to severe thunderstorms appear likely — and if you’re headed outside during the afternoon hours, keep a close eye to the sky. Make sure to sign up for our Text Alert system and keep an eye on the Dashboard during the day on Saturday. Our forecasting team will have the latest.