Premium: Warming trend in the East will be short lived

Weather news this week has been centered around the presence of a large ridge, building into the Central United States. This ridge will reach eastward to the Ohio Valley, with tremendously warm temperatures surging from the desert southwest into the heart of the country. In the East, however — especially the Northeast — this warm air will be short lived. An active pattern throughout the Northern jet stream will keep the upper air pattern very active, and the amplification of the pattern will allow colder air to surge into Southeast Canada and the Northeast.

Much of this will be centered around a cold front, which will move through the Northeast US on Thursday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will warm up throughout the East on Wednesday and Thursday. Thereafter, on Thursday afternoon and evening, an  impressively strong system in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will drop southward into Southeast Canada and eventually the Northeast, interacting with moisture and providing sufficient lift for heavy rain.

Forecast models showing cold in the Northeast US while a significant area of warmth remains over the Central US.

Forecast models showing cold in the Northeast US while a significant area of warmth remains over the Central US.

The temperature gradient associated with this storm system will be impressive, with temperatures at 850mb (about 5000 feet above our heads) falling from 12 to 14 degrees Celsius during a 12 hour time span. The warm airmass from Thursday afternoon will be replaced by a cold one by Friday morning, with rapidly falling temperatures. Temperatures will actually fall near or below seasonal averages throughout the East during parts of the upcoming weekend.

Secondary shots of cooler air will also surge southward from Canada into the Northeast US through Monday. All the while, a large and impressive ridge will be centered over the Central US, providing highly anomalous warmth. Warm air will likely approach the Northeast US once again during the middle part of next week, as this ridge begins to roll eastward towards the Ohio Valley and eventually the East Coast.

Exactly how long this lasts will depend on the larger scale, hemispheric pattern change in mid-November which has been well discussed. While we don’t know the exact date of the pattern change — we don’t think the anomalous warmth in the Northeast US will last very long.