PM Zone 3 & 7 Update: Freezing rain expected Tuesday PM

Increasing clouds this evening will continue building tonight, as a large and complex storm system develops over the Central United States. The hallmark of this storm system, in our area, will largely be southerly winds and warming temperatures in the atmospheres mid and upper levels. However, stout cold air near the surface will lead to the potential for freezing rain on Tuesday evening in the interior and higher elevations.

While southerly winds build in the atmospheres mid and upper levels, where snowflakes form and fall, temperatures at the surface are forecast to remain quite cold even as precipitation begins to fall late on Tuesday afternoon and into the evening and overnight period. This creates concern for freezing rain in the higher elevations and areas with deeper snowpack, with rain falling and refreezing on the surface for a period of time on Tuesday evening.

Forecast models show freezing rain developing across parts of Northeast PA, Southeast NY, and Northwest NJ on Wednesday morning.

Forecast models show freezing rain developing across parts of Northeast PA, Southeast NY, and Northwest NJ on Wednesday morning.

The threat for freezing rain is likely to be relatively short — temperatures warm up relatively quickly as the southerly winds strengthen and quickly scour out the cold air. However, for the period of time that it falls on Tuesday evening, roads could become quite slick and icy with some accretion of ice. Our main concern it he modeling of surface temperatures over the next 12 hours, and regional observations will need to be monitored very closely.

High resolution forecast models suggest that the threat for freezing rain is likely to stay northwest of the Delaware River Valley on a southwest to northeast axis. But there is some threat for this to seek southeastward of there — into Northern NJ and Southeast NY. Hence, the monitoring of temperatures over the next several hours into Tuesday morning.

We have outlined a threat area on the map area below, to which updates are possible over the next several hours into Tuesday. Continue to monitor the zone forecasts and updates for more!

Freezing Rain impact map in the Northeast US from Tuesday PM to Wednesday AM.

Freezing Rain impact map in the Northeast US from Tuesday PM to Wednesday AM.