1/16 AM All Zones Update: Tranquil Weather Today, Wetter Tuesday

Tranquil weather continues today, as high pressure shifts east and then off Mid-Atlantic coast by late this afternoon. Plenty of sunshine is expected, with just some high cirrus arriving from the southwest, by this afternoon. After cold start early this morning, a light return southwesterly flow and rising mid-level heights will likely help warm into lower to middle 40s over much of the region this afternoon. Perhaps closer to 40 over the Interior.

Then a storm system with a primary low tracking northwest of the region, may begin affecting the region late tonight. Clouds will thicken and increase, ahead of warm front approaching the southwest this evening. Some light precipitation cold breakout some after midnight, or early tomorrow morning. Depending on how fast precipitation arrives, there could be some light snow, sleet or freezing rain at the start, especially over Northern New Jersey, Lower Hudson Valley zones. For the rest of zones, low-level temperatures will likely be warm enough for mostly if not all rain, with southerly winds. The airmass will gradually warm later Tuesday, so any wintry mix change over to rain by late morning or early afternoon, over most of the zones.

However, a secondary low developing south of NYC/Long Island, may cause light winds to turn more east or northeast tomorrow afternoon. This may keep the higher terrain north of I-84 over Mid-Hudson Valley and North cold enough for some areas of freezing rain with icing to continue into the afternoon and evening hours. At this time, we don’t favor significant ice accretion. But this will be monitored closely.

6z RGEM model indicating areas for Freezing rain well over parts of Mid-Hudson Hudson Valley and Northwest CT

RGEM model showing areas of snow, sleet and freezing rain well over the Mid-Hudson Hudson Valley and Northern CT, rain for the rest of region.

For the rest of the region, more periods of rain are likely during afternoon and evening hours. A strengthening 700mb jet streak from the west, may cause rain to become moderate to heavy at times, especially by evening. But not enough rainfall is expected to lead to significant flooding hazards. There might be a wide range of temperatures from north to south, with the secondary low keep the warm front pushing northward through entire region.

Then a dry-slot will cause rain to taper off lighter showers or drizzle later tomorrow night. Some showers may linger into Wednesday some associated mid-level shortwave energy and weak cold front moves through region. Drier weather returns by Wednesday night. Stay tuned for more zone forecast updates later today on this storm system and the weather later this week.