1/5 PM All Zones: Active, complicated forecast through midweek

A transitional weather pattern will continue over the next few days, and multiple storm systems are expected to impact the area over the next few days. Quiet weather through Monday will give way to a developing storm system in the Great Lakes, which will move into Southeast Canada on Tuesday. Warmer air will be drawn into the Northeast US as the storm develops, and rain will spread throughout the area on Tuesday.

A threat for wintry precipitation will develop throughout New England on the front end of the storm system, as a cold high pressure over Canada shifts away from the area. This will be most prevalent across interior portions of NY State, Connecticut and areas further north into New England. Cold air in the lower levels will be more stout here, and multiple precipitation types are possible — including snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

Further south, throughout much of New Jersey and New York as well as Pennsylvania, the atmospheric column will be too warm to support frozen precipitation once it begins. Mainly rain is expected as the system moves to our northwest on Tuesday evening, with precipitation ending from later Tuesday into Wednesday morning throughout the area.

A follow-up wave of low pressure will develop from later Wednesday into Thursday morning. Forecast models have waved dramatically with the intensity of this low pressure center, mainly due to differences with the amplitude of the disturbance aloft. Stronger forecast models with a deeper disturbance aloft have produced snow along the area coasts, with some suggesting significant snowfall.

The overall pattern, however, remains quite progressive. There is not much room for amplification within a fast mid and upper level atmospheric flow. Overall, a faster and weaker storm progression is favored — however, the potential for snow near the area coasts cannot be ruled out. It is possible the storm system remains weak but snow also clips coastal locations as well.

Stay tuned over the next few days for further updates as the system draws closer.