PM Zones (N NJ, NYC, CT): Light snow likely tonight

Calm and pleasant weather conditions dominated the day today, with breezy conditions from earlier this morning tapering off a bit as the day went on. The weather will remain for the next few hours, but sun will become filtered by high and eventually mid clouds near sunset. The weather will become unsettled again later today and tonight as a disturbance and associated low pressure area approach.

This low pressure area will be driving from Southaest Canada into New England, eventually to a position off the coast of New England. The storm system is not deep or amplified, and will remain very progressive. But bands of snow are likely to move from New York State through Southern New England tonight, possibly clipping parts of Northern New Jersey, NYC, and Long Island.

Accumulations should range from 1-3″, with the potential of up to 5″ in the higher elevations of New England by Saturday morning. Moisture will linger for a bit on Saturday morning across New England as the low pressure system develops well to the east. This moisture will eventually be shunted to the east as another low pressure area forms to the southwest of the area.

This storm system is likely to more impactful in multiple ways as it develops over the Great Lakes. Precipitation will surge northwards through the Mid Atlantic on Sunday morning and afternoon, and despite the presence of warm air both aloft and at the surface, cold air will remain stout at the start. This will lead to a period of potential wintry precipitation from the hills of Northern NJ into Southeast NY and particularly in Connecticut.

Eventually, warmer air will take over as Sunday goes on and precipitation will change to rain across most of the aforementioned areas. Wintry precipitation may hold on across the higher elevations of Northern Connecticut during this time frame. The attention will be turning towards the development of a secondary low pressure off the coast of New England, which may rapidly deepen later on Sunday and into Monday morning.

Forecast models have remained highly inconsistent with this development. The ECMWF is stronger and closer to the coast, with bands of snowfall reaching as far west as Northern Connecticut and West/Central Massachusetts on Sunday night into Monday. Other models (such as the GFS) are further east and more progressive with the storm system — currently the solution we are leaning slightly towards.

Either way — after an initial round of wintry precipitation, most areas will change to liquid by Sunday afternoon. The main exception area in our zones is Northern/Central CT, where snow may return as the secondary low pressure area develops through Monday AM. The wintry event is likely to be much more impactful further northeast in New England, particularly in New Hampshire and Maine.

Stay tuned for further updates later tonight and into the weekend.