2.14 AM All Zones Update: Calmer Weather Returns, Midweek Storm Mostly A Miss

More tranquil weather is expected today and tonight, as weak high pressure and some upper-level ridging, builds into the region. A weaker pressure gradient will keep winds on the lighter side. But a couple weak, passing mid-level disturbances may bring more clouds from time to time . After very cold morning in the teens or 20s over the zones, temperatures will rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s this afternoon. Which is pretty close to normal for mid-February here.

Skies may clear for awhile sometime tonight, between these disturbances. This may allow for some radiational cooling and thus temperatures dropping down into the lower to middle 20s, over the Interior areas. But winds will be turning more southwesterly with overnight, as a weak warm frontal boundary associated with low pressure near the Great Lakes, begins approaching the region. This may keep temperatures overnight, warmer in the lower to middle 30s, especially over more urban and coastal areas.

Tomorrow the region will be in between two large disturbances, passing mostly to north and south. As we’ve been discussing in prior zone forecasts, these disturbances will not phase in time to produce a significant winter storm for our region. Instead, some subsidence between these disturbance will likely keep much of the region dry with southwest winds helping temperatures warm further into the 40s on Wednesday.

But only a little change in timing between when disturbance begin interacting with each other, may result in some precipitation, particularly over far northeast and southeast parts of the region. Even if that occurs, boundary level temperatures appear to be warm enough to support more of a mix of rain and snow with minimal impacts overall. We will continue to monitor both disturbances for any significant changes and update forecasts if necessary.

Otherwise, a cold front associated with an upper-level low move through by tomorrow night. Seasonable cold temperatures return with more pleasant weather on Thursday and Friday. Then stronger ridging builds into the Northeast this weekend. Temperatures will moderate back to above normal on Saturday and Sunday, possibly well into 50s or even 60s for highs, in parts of the region.

Stay tuned for another zone forecast this afternoon and evening. Also continue to check the main dashboard for more discussion in through the long or extended term.