2/15 AM All Zones Update: Rain or Snow Showers Possible Later Today

A mixture of clouds and sunshine is expected today, as an upper-level low associated with northern stream disturbance,  tracks over Northern NY and New England and southern stream wave moves of Mid-Atlantic. These systems will largely bypass the region with minimal impacts. Then will phase and consolidated into larger storm well offshore and likely bring some heavy snowfall to parts of Northern New England, tonight.

However, a strong shortwave rotating underneath the upper-level low along with a cold front, could trigger some rain or snow showers over the local region this afternoon and evening. Showers with more rain are likely closer to coast, with temperatures rising into lower to middle 40s this afternoon. But further inland, temperatures will be in the 30s. So this might support more snow with showers. Some instability with steep low-level lapse rates could support a few rain showers with gusty winds or some isolated snow showers over the Interior, as well.

NAM model showing strong shortwave moving through the region early this evening with some rain/snow showers. While low pressure consolidates well offshore.

NAM model showing strong shortwave moving through the region early this evening with some rain/snow showers. While low pressure consolidates well offshore.

After the shortwave and cold front passes through region this evening, skies will clear later tonight. It will turn blustery and colder with temperatures dropping into middle to upper 20s by daybreak. Then the storm impacting Northern New England tonight, will become a deep, closed low while moving over the Canadian Martimes. This will keep a seasonably cold airmass with lower mid-level heights over Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday and Friday. A tight pressure gradient behind this low, will cause more breezy conditions tomorrow with winds possibly gusting to around 35mph or 40mph. Then these winds will gradually diminish Thursday night and Friday, as high pressure from the west, begins moving closer to the region.

A lack of high-latitude blocking will allow for the closed low to out of the Canadian Maritimes by Friday night. Then higher mid-level heights, will begin building into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region this weekend. Temperatures will rising to well above normal levels with high temperatures possibly well into the 50s and or even into the 60s with a deeper southwest flow. Dry weather is still expected this weekend, with just some high clouds possible streaming northward, from another southern stream disturbance passing well to the south.

GEFS showing above normal temperatures much of Central and Eastern US by Sunday

GEFS showing above normal temperatures much of Central and Eastern US by Sunday

More zonal heights or ridging will dominate over the Eastern US next week, as some troughiness with a split flow persists out over the Western US. Some northern stream disturbances passing to north could cause a couple of weak cold fronts pass through the region, with somewhat cooler airmasses coming behind them. But temperatures will still likely be above normal for much of the week. Northern and southern stream disturbances could combine into a larger storm system that could impact the region with more significant precipitation late next week.

Stay tuned for zone forecast updates and more discussion through the extended term on the main dashboard.