2.22 PM Zone Update: Record-breaking warmth on the way

As a trough digs into the West Coast of the United States over the next 24 to 48 hours, a ridge is forecast to develop throughout the Central and Eastern United States. Southerly winds in the mid and low levels of the atmosphere will aid in the ridge moving northward and expanding, with anomalously warm air surging northwards from the Southern and Central US into the Eastern United States by the latter half of this upcoming week.

While the ridge is impressive in the mid levels of the atmosphere, the surface temperature response will be even more impressive. Temperatures on Thursday and Friday afternoon, throughout the Northeast (and especially in the interior) will average 20-30 degrees above normal averages for this time of year. In many areas, this will mean afternoon high temperatures in the 60’s and possibly even lower 70’s!

The first step in bringing warmth here will be the advection of moisture and warmer air in the low levels of the atmosphere, which will occur tonight into Thursday morning. As this occurs, fog is expected to develop throughout the area, pushing inland from the ocean waters as the low level flow remains moist and cool for a period of time. The fog may be quite thick at times, with visibilities near zero and travel (particularly in the air) affected.

The fog will lift as a warm front pushes northward. This warm front, in New England later Thursday, will serve as a demarcation line for the warmth. To its northeast, in Northern New England, cold and damp air will remain entrenched in the atmosphere’s lower levels. Further south, from the Mid Atlantic states into Southern New England, more of a southerly wind component will help draw warmer air northward. While some clouds may be around at times, overall pleasant and extremely warm conditions are expected.

This is all occurring, and being additionally enhanced by, a storm system which will be strengthening in the Central US, from the Northern Great Plains into the Great Lakes. A cold front associated with that system will begins sweeping eastwards through the Ohio and Mississippi River Valley on Friday, potentially leading to some severe weather. But southerly winds ahead of that front will only enhance warmth in the Northeast on Friday.

A change to the airmass is coming on Saturday as a cold front approaches the region. Initially, warmth will be present once again — but the front approaching may bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms with blustery winds. Stay tuned for further updates on the potential for showers and storms!