2/22 AM All Zones: Warmer Temperatures…T-Storms With Heavy Rain Possible Saturday

More unseasonable mild temperatures return again today with rising mid-level heights and southwest winds. Low clouds this morning, will break for some sunshine this afternoon with temperatures rising into the upper 50s to lower 60s over many parts of the region.

It will remain mild into tonight. Low temperatures with a southwest flow will only be lower to middle 40s near the coast and upper 30s inland. Some low clouds and patchy fog could also develop later tonight into early tomorrow morning.

But these will clear break for sunshine as the airmass begins with stronger west-southwest flow and mid-level ridging. Temperatures will likely be approaching record highs tomorrow over NYC and PHL metro areas, in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Some spots could get into the middle 70s, with enough sunshine. Other areas to the north and east in Long Island and Connecticut, may remain be somewhat cooler, with more clouds and onshore flow.

The 0z ECMWF showing highs in the 60s over much of the region

The ECMWF model showing highs in the 60s over much of the region on Thursday

Then a warm front associated with storm system tracking into Great Lakes, will move into the region Thursday night and Friday morning. More low clouds and areas of patchy fog develop, along with some showers and drizzle. Temperatures will drop into 50s or lower 60s across the region, making for very mild late winter night.

Then there is some more uncertainty this morning, on how much temperatures will warm over region later Friday into Saturday, before a cold front approaches the region. Some models are showing more south-southeast winds and some cloud cover, that could keep temperatures more the mid-upper 50s to lower 60s over coastal areas and areas north of Central New Jersey. Some light showers and drizzle may also occur, if the warm front remains to south.

 

GFS showing warmer temperatures in 60s over North-Central NJ on south on Friday afternoon

GFS showing warmer temperatures in 60s over North-Central NJ on south on Friday afternoon

More onshore winds are due to another area low pressure developing off the Southeast Coast, that will be tracking northward and merging with the Great Lakes system over New England. Weak high pressure will also be moving into Newfoundland on Saturday. But if the warm front manages to lift farther north with more southwest winds and more sunshine, temperatures will soar well in the 60s and possibly low to mid 70s again over much of the region.

More showers are likely by late Saturday afternoon and evening, as the cold front approaches the region. Much of dynamic forcing with this system will be over Western and Central Parts of New York State and Pennsylvania.  But still appears that strong lift from mid-upper level jet streaks, moisture convergence along a frontal boundary and some weak elevated/surface-based CAPE may still be associated with this system move through local region. So a convective low-topped squall line with some heavy rain and rumbles of thunder is still possible.

 

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The ECMWF model showing heavy rainfall and possible t-storms moving into the region by Saturday evening

The cold front will move through later Saturday night. Rain will taper off and skies will clear by daybreak Sunday. Then temperatures will likely return to closer to seasonably cold levels for Sunday. A disturbance move through, could still some light wintry mix over region early next week. But latest models have backed off a more significant system, as associated shortwave energy, gets sheared underneath a confluence zone.