2/23 AM All Zones: Morning Clouds & Fog, Then More Warmth This Afternoon

Some low clouds and patchy, dense fog this morning should gradually clear out for more sunshine this afternoon. An unseasonably warm airmass will still be over the region, Southwest winds will help temperatures rise well into mid-upper 60s over much of New Jersey, Lower Hudson Valley and immediate NYC metro area by mid-late afternoon. Temperatures might be cooler in the mid-upper 50s to lower 60s in more coastal areas like Long Island and Connecticut coast, with winds more ocean keeping more low clouds and fog linger into the afternoon hours.

Then skies some low clouds and fog will begin returning this evening, as moisture underneath a low-level inversion increases again. Fog could be become dense again with very low visibilities, in some areas, especially closer to the coast. A weak frontal boundary also approaching may cause enough lift for some areas of light rain or drizzle. It will be mild again tonight, with temperatures only dropping into the upper 40s and low to middle 50s over much of the region.

There is still some uncertainty on extent warmth Friday and Saturday. High temperatures on Friday will depend on quickly low clouds and fog clear during the morning.  If they are slow clear during the day temperatures will mostly be mid-upper 50s to lower 60s over the region. If they clear for more sunshine by the afternoon temperatures will likely be warmer could reach the upper 60s to lower 70s in some spots.

Saturday may start more low clouds and fog again, before some clearing by late morning or early afternoon. This could help temperatures rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s again. But a strong cold front will be approaching from the west, with more clouds and threat for showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Currently guidance indicates enough shear, forcing and instability for an more organized squall line to form ahead of this front over Central parts of New York State and Pennsylvania during the afternoon. If this line holds together, it could produce heavy rain and gusty winds, as moves through later in afternoon and evening, over parts of the area. More information on this potential will be in zone forecast update this afternoon.

The cold front will pass through later Saturday night. More seasonable chilly temperatures and more sunshine will return on Sunday. But an active pattern, continues for next week with a number of disturbances or waves of low pressure that could bring some rain or mixed precipitation to the region. We anticipate a somewhat colder pattern with perhaps more winter storm threats, going into the second week of March as well.