2.26 Mid-AM Zones: Transient, unsettled weather returns

Wow, what a difference 24 hours can make! The strong cold front which moved through the region yesterday, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms with severe weather in the interior Northeast, brought much colder air with it. Cold air advection with impressive northwesterly winds behind the front as allowed much colder air to surge into the Northeast States, with temperatures actually running a few degrees below normal this morning!

By this afternoon, temperatures will return mostly to seasonal averages, with highs in the 40’s. So the cold air will be more of a  shock to the system than anything else, compared to the last few days of warmth. The colder air will remain entrenched in the area for the next 24 hours before slowly beginning to moderate as the week ahead approaches.

The weather pattern will then begin to take a transient and unsettled turn as we head into the middle part of the work week. Temperatures will begin to moderate by Monday and Tuesday, as atmospheric ridging begins to build back towards the region. Multiple disturbances over the Central United States will begin shifting eastwards towards the Ohio Valley, and moisture will advect towards the Northeast US as they do so.

Unsettled weather will essentially begin on Tuesday with clouds and shower beginning to approach — although any steady rain looks unlikely until Tuesday Night. Approaching disturbances, however, will aid in a continued downturn in overall weather conditions. Showers will become more numerous from Tuesday into Wednesday as a low pressure system strengthens over the Ohio Valley.

Forecast models have wavered a bit with the exact track of the storm system — which has more significant implications for severe weather potential in the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. In the Northeast US, however, the implications are significant as well, as we try to pin down the location of a warm front. This warm front will be the focal point for showers and embedded storms on Wednesday afternoon, and is currently forecast to be situated from west to east essentially from Northern PA into the Upper Mid Atlantic and Southern New England.

As a low pressure shifts into Southeast Canada, more moisture and warmer air will move northwards into the Northeast US. Another cold front will swing eastwards from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast US, this time with much less impressive instability (so a minimal severe weather threat). But rain and unsettled weather will again become widespread in the Northeast US.

The weather looks to remain largely transient and unsettled through the week ahead, until a colder and active pattern becomes more established beyond. Stay tuned for further details in our long range update later today!