3/04 All Zones Update: Arctic Airmass Remains This Weekend, Warming Trend Early Next Week

Happy Saturday! Very cold and blustery conditions are in store for today. Sunshine will be mixing with some clouds  as some instability remains in the atmosphere. But it should remain dry for most of the region with maybe a few spotty flurries over the Interior. Temperatures will only rise into the upper 20s or lower 30s this afternoon. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure north of the Great Lakes and a deepening storm near New Foundland will also cause northwest winds to occasionally gust today between 30-40mph, especially by this afternoon. This will result in windchills in the single digits and teens throughout the day.

Skies will clear and winds gradually diminishing tonight, with high pressure moving closer to the region. But winds will still be gusting to 20-30mph into the overnight hours. Temperatures will likely drop into single digits over much of the Interior and lower to middle teens over closer to the coast. Windchills could be down to near or slightly below zero. We advise you dress in multiple layers, with a hat, gloves and scarf if going out tonight.

The core of the artic airmass will be moving into New England on Sunday afternoon, as mid-level heights being rising from the west. High temperatures still be only be in lower to middle 30s for most the region. Which is still several degrees below normal. But high pressure will be over the region, providing more sunshine with clearer skies and lighter winds.  So it will not feel quite as harsh as on today.

One more very cold night is likely for Sunday night. More mid-level warm advection may cause high clouds to arrive during the late overnight hours. But light winds and more clear skies during early night time hours, will likely cause more radiational cooling with temperatures to drop quickly back down into upper teens and low to mid 20s across the region. A gradual moderating trend to near and above normal temperatures is still expected for Monday and Tuesday with high pressure moving of the Mid-Atlantic coast and more mid-level ridging and southwest flow developing. Mainly dry weather should last into least day on Monday and perhaps early Tuesday.

But a closed, deep low tracking over the Northern Plains and then into Central Canada early in the week, will send a cold front through region some later Tuesday into Wednesday. Some rainfall with appears likely, some lift and moisture streaming northward of the Gulf of Mexico but the bulk of system. But better forcing dynamics for very heavy rainfall will likely be northwest of the region. Instability appears minimal for any convection at this time, as well.

Behind this system temperatures will likely return to near or below normal again later next week. In the longer term, model guidance is currently good agreement some blocking will developing over Greenland or the Davis Strait. This will likely mitigate any warm-up during the middle of the month over the Northeast. But there is greater disagreement and inconsistency with the pattern along the West Coast, supporting more sustained below normal temperatures and significant snowstorms for the region.

Stay tuned for more zone forecast and long range updates with more discussion on the pattern for Mid-March, coming soon. For now, have a good weekend!