3/13 Evening Zones Update: Blizzard with High Winds and Coastal Flooding Tuesday

While many people focused on blizzard with very heavy snowfall, there will other important hazards that come with this storm. The blizzard will also be a major Nor’easter with strong winds, especially closer to the coast, tomorrow morning and early afternoon. There will be tight thermal gradient between deep low off Delmarva coast and high over Southeast Canada. This will  will east to northeast winds sustained at least between 20-30 mph with frequent gusts up to 40 mph over much of the region. But there potential for even much higher gusts with strong easterly 850mb-950mb jet moving through the region.

The latest models are tracking the low closer to New Jersey coast and near Long Island. This will allow stronger winds to spread further inland. The latest GFS bufkit overview for places such as Islip, NY and Atlantic City, NJ shows some potential for wind 55-60kt winds to mix down 925mb to 975mb. The latest ECMWF model how has much stronger low near 979mb near the Southern New Jersey coast. The model indicates easterly winds gusting between 60mph and 70mph beginning late tonight night into Tuesday. These winds alone could bring down trees, powers lines and street signs. High wind warnings have been issued along NJ shore for wind gust possibly up to 60mph. We feel there may potential for some damaging wind 60-70mph gusts over New Jersey shore and much of over Long Island and Southeast CT shores.

Wind Gust Potential Map

Wind Gust Potential Across the Zones

This persistent onshore fetch will lead to higher than normal tides especially for Tuesday morning. We will be coming of a full moon that peaked on Sunday. So tides will be not be astronomically high to support more major flooding. But some minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is still possible, with the potential winds gust over 50 mph. Coastal flood warnings have been issued been issues for parts of the New Jersey and  and Long Island shores. Forecasts from Barnegat Bay at Barnegat Light, NJ and Great South Bay at Lindenhurst, NY show tides near moderate flood stage. Other areas likely see more widespread minor coastal flooding.

These winds also create some rough surf and heavy seas. Wave heights could be over 10 feet near the shores. Latest models show the winds should begin turning more northerly and diminish  by Tuesday evening, as low tracks over the Eastern Long Island and pressure gradients weakens on the west side of the low track. This should allow any flooding to recede later Tuesday afternoon and evening. Then surf should start to calm down by Wednesday as storm moves into the New England region. Stay tuned for more zone updates concerning this storm impacts later tonight or tomorrow morning.