3.23 PM Zones: Unsettled weather on the way this weekend

A happy Thursday afternoon to you all! The weather has remained calm and cold over the past few days and today was no exception. The calm and cold weather will persist into the evening hours tonight as high pressure remains in general control of the areas weather. Clear skies will dominate the Northeast US to begin the evening and radiational cooling will again occur, leading to temperatures falling well below average tonight.

However, clouds will gradually increase from the west/southwest as a warm front makes its approach towards the region. The warm front is associated with a storm system over the Central United States, making a gradual progression towards the Northeast. Clouds are expected to increase late in the evening towards the early morning hours of Friday. Precipitation, however, should hold off as the atmosphere will remain dry.

Conditions were calm and cool in the Northeast as of this afternoon.

Conditions were calm and cool in the Northeast as of this afternoon.

As the warm front approaches the area on Friday morning, temperatures will have cooled quite significantly throughout the atmospheric column. A warm layer will remain in the mid levels, which will negate the potential for snow as the front approaches. However, as lift begins to strengthen in the late morning hours and precipitation becomes more common, the atmosphere will remain cool enough for frozen precipitation across the interior locations.

This suggests the potential for a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, and graupel in parts of Northwestern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast PA. These regions will be particularly cold relative to their surroundings. Forecast models indicate the potential for periods of wintry mixed precipitation through the late morning hours and into the afternoon in these regions, particularly the NAM which suggests light accumulations.

The event is very likely to be minor in terms of significance, but impacts may still be felt in the mentioned areas. Roadways may become slick and slippery through Friday afternoon and evening especially with surface temperatures hovering near freezing for a period of time. Eventually as the warm front passes temperatures will warm quite notably and the frozen precipitation threat — and slick road hazards — will end.

NAM model showing wintry mixed precipitation in the interior on Friday.

NAM model showing wintry mixed precipitation in the interior on Friday.

Closer to the coast and city, precipitation is expected to be mostly rain — and mostly in the form of showers (i.e not overly steady or heavy). The warm front passes by on Friday and warmer air will begin to move into the region. In fact, temperatures will surge much above normal on Saturday with the warm front to the north of the area – with the exception of Northern New England where things will remain cool and damp.

The weather turns unsettled and cooler by later Sunday and Monday as the front sinks back southwards, with unsettled weather returning to the forecast. Stay tuned for details and a likely area-specific zone forecast for NW NJ/NE PA/SE NY in the coming hours.