3.24 PM Zone Update: Difficult, unsettled forecast this weekend

A wonderful Friday evening to you all! The weather was quite unsettled and wintery this morning across the interior, where a mix of sleet and rain fell across the higher elevations. A larger and more significant threat was inhibited by warmer temperatures near the coast as well as limited moisture in the atmosphere. Showers then become more common throughout the area, but have since tapered this afternoon and will continue to do so this evening.

Some limited moisture still exists, but not enough lift is present in the atmosphere to produce precipitation through the area. This moisture is associated with a warm front which will be pushing northward through the Northeast states this evening. Its progress will be noted by a change in the airmass, especially across the Mid Atlantic and Southern/Central New Jersey. But its northward movement will be significantly hindered by Saturday.

European model showing a stark temperature gradient throughout the region Saturday afternoon.

European model showing a stark temperature gradient throughout the region Saturday afternoon.

 

The presence of a cold, fast atmospheric flow over New England (And associated high pressure area) are a significant caveat to the forecast. While the warm front would otherwise blow through to our north, leading to an anomalously warm day on Saturday, this high pressure to the north will eventually win the battle between warm and cold air on Saturday, sending the warm front back southwards as a backdoor cold front.

As you may imagine, the temperature forecast on Saturday throughout the region is extremely difficult and complex. How far north the warm front gets will be critical — it will serve as a demarcation line of sorts between a very warm airmass and a cold, damp one. Forecast models suggest currently that the front will move northwards to a position near Central NJ, between Trenton and NYC, before falling back southwards.

The backdoor cold front gains steam by the afternoon and evening hours, and a damp and cooler airmass surges back southwards from New England. If the damp and cool airmass after a tease of warmth wasn’t enough, it will also turn unsettled once again. With low level moisture returning to the region, drizzle and showers will become likely from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening throughout the region. Fog is also possible in the usually foggy low lying areas as well as near the shore.

Low clouds and unsettled weather will remain in the forecast on Sunday as moisture remains in the area, entrenched under the high pressure which will have built southward. An unsettled, progressive weather pattern is likely to continue into the week ahead as multiple disturbances move into the Central USA from the Pacific Ocean.