Evening Zones: Briefly drier, another storm on the way

Whew! The active pattern we had been discussing for several days has certainly arrived. Several disturbances and individual storm systems have impacted the area, with widespread rainfall and unsettled conditions. More than anything, really, the weather has been incredibly bleak with widespread fog and drizzle even when the rain wasn’t overly heavy. The atmosphere will finally settle down over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Drier air is nudging into the region already as a low pressure system moves off the coast of the Northeast United States. Rain over the region will shift gradually east through morning, with drier air and high pressure moving into the area. The sun (it still exists!) will return to the friendly skies on Wednesday, with temperatures near average. Most notably, clouds and drizzle will be a memory, for now.

Despite the comfortably pleasant conditions expected during the middle part of the week, attention is already turning to the development of another storm system which is expected from late Thursday through Friday. Ejecting from the southwest states into the Central United States, a low pressure area will move towards the East Coast over the next few days.

Moisture associated with the storm system will stream towards the Northeast states later on Thursday, with clouds increasing in coverage and thickening by the evening hours. Rain will begin to overspread the majority of the region once again late Thursday night into Friday. With increasing moisture, warm air advection (the movement of warm air in the atmosphere) and plenty of light, the rain may be heavy at times.

Interestingly enough, the higher pressure which builds in on Wednesday and Thursday will have some cold components to it. And as the late-week storm system approaches, enough low and mid level cold may exist across the interior for precipitation to start as snow or a mix of wintry precipitation. This is most likely across the very highest elevations of Northwest NJ, Southeast NY and especially in Connecticut.

Even still, the threat for wintry precipitation will be quite minimal. Warm in multiple levels of the atmosphere will quickly scour out the cold, with periods of rain anticipated area-wide on Friday. In fact, forecast models suggest the potential for over an inch of rain throughout the area — surely what everybody is hoping for on a Friday afternoon!

Nevertheless, the storm system gradually shifts away from the area and higher pressures begin to build into the area as Saturday goes on. The weekend may not be totally lost if forecast models are correct in their idea that drier air will work into the region by late Saturday into Sunday.  Stay tuned for further details!