AM Zones Update: Unsettled, Chilly Weather Today, Warming Trend Begins Sunday

Happy Friday! After the drenching downpours yesterday, more unsettled weather is in store today. Shortwave energy and a cold pool aloft associated with a large upper-level low over the Northeast will be swinging through region today. This will cause more lift and instability for some scattered showers to develop by this afternoon.

Low-level moisture is limited. So these showers are expected to be mainly on the light side. However, the airmass may be cold enough to support some snow or ice pellets mixed in with the rain showers over hills well northwest of NYC today. But no accumulations are expected with temperatures likely to remain above freezing.

Temperatures will not move much from the morning hours due to more cloud cover. High temperatures will be in the mid-upper 40s to around 50 over much of the region. Perhaps a little cooler over the higher elevations and underneath any showers today. Winds will also increase out of the northwest and possibly gust up to 30mph, late this afternoon and early this evening, as a weak cold front also passes through the region.

3km NAM showing some showers over region this afternoon

3km NAM showing some showers over region this afternoon

Scattered showers will taper off this evening, as lift and instability diminishes. Then skies will begin clear later tonight as the upper-level low shifts northeast of the region. This will allow temperatures to drop into in mid-upper 30s to lower 40s over much of the region.

This weekend will see much more improved weather, as high pressure from Canada builds into region. On Saturday, a drier and chilly airmass will be over region, on the backside of the upper-level low. More sunshine will help temperatures rise into the lower to middle 50s for highs, during the afternoon hours. These temperatures are still somewhat below normal for this time of year.

But on Sunday, the upper-level low will move farther away into the Canadian Maritimes. This will allow for an upper-level ridge to begin building over the Northeast with return southwesterly for around high pressure off Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday. After a chilly start in the morning, temperatures should rise into lower to middle 60s over much of the region, with mostly sunny skies.

ecmwf_t2max_neng_21Then early in the work week upper-level riding continues to build into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. This will allow for much warmer airmass to move into region with deeper southwest flow. Temperatures will on Monday and Tuesday will likely well into the 70s for much of the region. Some spots could see temperature near 80 degrees with 850mb temperatures forecast to between 12°C to 14°C on the models. Temperatures might be little cooler near the coast, with a gradient leading to more sea-breezes during the afternoon.

However, these very warm temperatures may not last for the rest of the week. Some ridging will likely persist in the mid-late week period over the Northern Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England regions. So no large storms with widespread heavy rainfall are anticipated. But the pacific jet will remain active with multiple disturbances moving across the Great Lakes and Northeast. These might cause some cold fronts to move through the region with some showers and some cooler weather behind them.

GFS ensembles 500mb heights next week showing a progressive pattern with stronger ridging over the Northeast earlier in the week

GFS ensembles 500mb heights next week showing a progressive pattern with stronger ridging over the Northeast & Mid-Atlantic early next week

Nevertheless, temperatures are still likely to average near to above normal later next week, with a more progressive pattern overall. Stay tuned for more zone forecast updates through the weekend, on more details on the weather for next week.