AM All Zones Update: More Warmth into Tuesday…Cooler Late Week

Good morning and happy Monday! A strong East coast ridge will provide some very pleasant warm weather over the region over next few days. Today will be mostly sunny with high pressure of Mid-Atlantic coast in control. 850mb temperatures today between 12°C and 13°C with southwest winds with light southwest winds will support high temperatures in the mid-upper 70s over much of the region, especially away from the coast.

Sea-breezes are likely to develop this afternoon for the coast, with a weak flow and thermal gradient inland. Temperatures will likely top in the mid-upper 60s to lower 70s, across parts of Long Island and other areas closer to the shore. Some low clouds and patchy fog may also moving from off the ocean near the shore.

Skies will remain mostly clear into tonight. A light southwest flow will keep temperatures mostly in the 50s overnight over the region. The only exceptions will be over Long Island and some coastal sections, where more marine influence with low clouds and patchy fog still around, may cause temperatures to drop into mid-upper 40s. Some interior valleys may also drop into mid-upper 40s that radiate better overnight.

3km NAM high temperatures over Northeast on Tuesday

3km NAM high temperatures over Northeast on Tuesday

Tomorrow will be a warmer day, with more southwest winds. 850mb temperatures will be a littler warmer between 13°C to 14°C and plenty of sunshine will support high temperatures a little warmer in the upper 70s to lower 80s over much of the region. Some sea-breezes will still keep areas along the shore cooler during the mid-late afternoon hours. But high temperatures may a little warmer than today, with a stronger southwest flow, keep the sea-breezes from develop earlier in the afternoon.

Then a weak cold front will come through sometime late Tuesday night or Wednesday. There is some uncertainty with exact timing and amount of moisture with this front. More cloud cover and some scattered showers are possible as this front moves through. But the best forcing with this front will be with an associated shortwave trough that will be passing more over Upstate NY and New England. So best chance for showers with some moderate rain will be over more of the northern zones.

A somewhat cooler airmass will come in behind this front on Wednesday and Thursday. But if skies clear by Wednesday afternoon with west-northwest downsloping winds, temperatures may rise back into the lower to middle 70s  over much the region by Wednesday afternoon, before the the cooler airmass settles in by Wednesday night. It’s possible that Wednesday could wind up being warmer in some coastal spots than on Monday or Tuesday. On Thursday temperatures will likely be closer to normal in the lower to middle 60s with more sunshine.

GFS model forecast for Wednesday afternoon with cold moving through with showers earlier the day

GFS model forecast for Wednesday afternoon with a cold front associated with a shortwave trough moving through with showers earlier the day

A stronger cold front from the north, may come through on Friday or Saturday with a deeper shortwave trough moving through the Northeast. This may lead to somewhat cooler weather with more clouds and perhaps a few showers around. But there are already indications that another ridge will build over the East with more sunshine and warmer temperatures in the 70s and returning by Easter Sunday and early next week.

Stay tuned for more zone forecast updates on the weather this week and for the holiday weekend!