AM All Zones Update: 80s Inland Today! Cooling Down Rest of the Week… Some T-Storms Easter Sunday?

Good morning and Happy Tuesday! A taste of early summer weather in store for region today, as strong ridge continues to dominate over the region. Mostly sunny skies are expected today. A deeper southwest flow with 850mb temperatures 14°C to 15°C will support highs lower to middle 80s, much of NJ, NYC and the Lower Hudson Valley. Some records highs may be jeopardy across the region, including Newark at 87 and Central Park at 84, both from 1955. Meanwhile southwest winds and sea-breezes off the colder ocean and sound, will once again keep areas closer to coastline cooler in 60s to lower 70s for highs today.

Temperatures will remain warm inland into evening hours, then fall into the 50s and lower 60s overnight everywhere. Clouds will gradually increase tonight as a weak cold front and shortwave trough begin to approach the region. But dry conditions are likely for most of the night. Some showers ahead of the cold front may move into the region Wednesday morning. Some weak instability could support some thunderstorms. But best forcing will likely be with more shortwave and jet streak energy moving over New England. So any showers and thunderstorms are likely be widely scattered over more the local region and not high in intensity.

NAM model showing shortwave trough and cold front moving through region more showers over New England by early Wednesday afternoon

NAM model showing shortwave trough and cold front moving through region more showers over New England by early Wednesday afternoon

Then skies will clear for more sunshine behind the cold front on Wednesday afternoon. Downsloping west/northwest winds will help temperatures rise into lower to middle 70s by mid-late afternoon. A Cooler airmass settles in Wednesday night with lows in the 40s over much of the region. High pressure with northwest flow will support mostly dry conditions for the rest of the week. Another cold front from the north moves through with a reinforcing shot of cool air on Friday and Saturday. High temperatures will be in lower to middle 60s on Thursday through Saturday over much of the region. Overnight lows will be mostly be 40s with perhaps some mid-upper 30s over Interior valleys. But these temperatures are just closer to normal for this time of year.

Then some ridging will move back into Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region by Easter Sunday. This will cause a warm front will move through region with some cluster of showers or isolated thunderstorms possible Saturday night. Then some warmer temperatures at least in the lower to middle 70s are likely with more southwest flow on Easter Sunday. If clouds break for enough sunshine, then temperatures could approach 80°F or higher over much of the region. Sea-breezes and southwest winds off the ocean will likely keep areas of Long Island and coastal locations, cooler once again.

GFS SBCAPE and 500mb bulk shear late Sunday afternoon

GFS model forecast for SBCAPE and 500mb bulk shear late Sunday afternoon

There is another chance of some showers and thunderstorms, as a cold front begins approaching the region by late Sunday afternoon and evening. There is some potential for some these thunderstorms to become strong or severe with an EML with some steep mid-level lapse moving over the region Sunday afternoon. This will likely cause the airmass to destabilize with more sunshine. But this potential will also depend on timing and kinematics. Latest GFS and ECMWF models indicate better shear and forcing may not arrive over the Northeast until later Sunday night and Monday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Great Lakes. So if this solution becomes a trend, it will mitigate more organized severe weather threat, despite more instability.

Regardless, some cooler, drier weather appears more likely to return for early next week, behind this cold front and trough. Some ridging over Western Canada and over Greenland will keep support potential for more troughs and cold fronts to come into the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic regions. But the pattern also continues to be progressive with a more fast and zonal flow. So more volatility with temperatures and precipitation are also likely to continue into later next week. Stay tuned for another zone forecast update, late this afternoon or early this evening on the weather for rest of this week and this upcoming weekend for Easter.