AM Zones Update: Mostly Dry Through the Weekend, Very Warm on Easter Sunday

Happy Friday! Today will be another pleasant Spring Day as high pressure from Canada builds over the region.  Some clouds may come through from time to time, as some weak mid-level disturbances move the region, especially this morning. But these clouds should break for more sunshine this afternoon.  High temperatures will be in lower to middle 60s again. Light winds will allow for some weak sea-breezes to develop along the shores this afternoon.

High pressure will continue mostly clear skies and light winds tonight. This will lead to more radiational cooling overnight. Lows by daybreak will be in the lower to middle 40s over many of suburbs to the upper 40s to near 50 in the urban areas. Some of the interior valleys and Pine barrens could drop well down into the 30s.

High pressure shifts off the Mid-Atlantic coast with more southerly flow on Saturday. Sunshine will be followed by increasing clouds during the afternoon hours, as a warm front approaches the region. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 60s again, except southerly winds off the ocean will keep areas cooler, in the mid-upper 50s for highs near the shore.

GFS model for Saturday evening showing strong mid-level ridge keeping bulk of shower activity further north.

GFS model for Saturday evening showing strong upper-level heights keeping bulk of shower activity further north.

Some isolated or scattered showers are possible as the warm front moves through region later tomorrow afternoon and into the evening hours. But much of this activity will be north of New York City, as mid-level ridging builds from the southwest over the region. Then skies will clear later Saturday night. Increasing warm-air advection with a southwest flow will keep temperatures mild, mostly in the 50s over the region Saturday night.

More sunshine and much warmer conditions are expected on Sunday. It will feel more like early summer again and without the humidity it will fantastic. Models continue to show 850mb temperatures 12°C to 14°C with west-southwest winds. This will support high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s over much of the region. Some afternoon sea-breezes will keep areas near the shore, just a little cooler with highs in the 70s.

Then a cold front approaches the region Sunday evening, with another chance of some isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could still contain heavy rainfall and gusty winds. But with models trending with later frontal passage during overnight hours and lack of large-scale synoptic forcing, no organized convection or severe weather is anticipated in the local region.

GFS for Sunday evening

GFS for Sunday evening showing few showers or thunderstorms with the cold front over region, while most of mid-level shortwave and upper-level jet energy is over the Great Lakes.

Behind the cold front, a cooler, drier airmass will being move into the region on Monday. But with more sunshine and donwsloping northwest winds, high temperatures will still be warmer than normal, in the lower to middle 70s. Then high pressure moving off the New England coast may support more onshore winds on Tuesday. Dry weather with some sunshine is expected. But temperatures could be much cooler on Tuesday.

Then a more active pattern will return for the rest of the week. More details, largely in regards to timing, are still up in the air. But multiple disturbances  could bring some rainfall to the region. Temperatures will depend on the timing of frontal boundaries moving through region and the amount of cloud cover each day, from these disturbances . Stay tuned for more zone forecast updates through the weekend, on the weather over the next several days!