PM Zones: Summer like weather on Easter, unsettled beyond

While Easter often marks the beginning of the Spring-like weather throughout the area, this year’s holiday will end up feeling more like a mid-summer day. An anomalous warm airmass, driven by west-southwesterly winds and warm air aloft, will surge over the region on Sunday after the passage of a warm front tonight. This will lead to very warm temperatures with highs in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s throughout the area.

Some areas may even climb into the middle 80’s by the afternoon hours as the warmth moves overhead. The best part of the airmass, for those near the shore, is the westerly wind component. This will act to inhibit the westward movement of marine air and sea breezes, keeping the effects of the cold ocean waters at bay (no pun intended). In all seriousness, it will be a very warm day.

NAM model showing high temperatures in the 80's on Easter.

NAM model showing high temperatures in the 80’s on Easter.

In the later afternoon and evening, however, a cold front will begin approaching the region from the west. Cooler air will be lingering back to the west of the region upon the fronts approach. A few isolated thunderstorms are also possible — but an overall lack of support for organized thunderstorms will exist. Essentially, wind fields will be weak and so will the lift in the atmosphere. Without sufficient lift to develop the storms, and without sufficient wind fields to support their organization, the overall threat will remain limited.

Still, an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out. The focus with the frontal boundary will be cooler temperatures, bringing an end to the summer-like weather rather quickly. A cooler high pressure will then begin drifting over New England by the early part of next week, leading to much more seasonable weather. Through the mid-week period, though, it appears any widespread rainfall will avoid the region.

The pattern becomes more active once again after that, with multiple disturbances ejecting eastwards from the Pacific. The period from Thursday through next weekend looks particularly active, as multiple frontal zones interact with incoming disturbances to lead to a higher than normal likelihood of unsettled conditions. We say this quite often, but we hope you are all able to enjoy the warmth on Easter before the unsettled pattern returns.

As a programming note, our updates will be limited on the Easter holiday as we all spend time with our families. However, zone forecasts and client forecasts will still be issued on schedule. Have a wonderful Saturday evening!