All Zones Mid-AM Update: Cooler Early Week, More Unsettled, Wetter Weather Late Week

Happy Monday! Today will begin a cooling trend after a summer-like day on Easter Sunday! More clouds than sunshine are likely through at least the early afternoon hours, as cold front approaches. A weak mid-level disturbance moving through the Mid-Atlantic region, is also producing some showers over Southeast PA and Southern NJ this morning. A few scattered showers or sprinkles are possible further north into Northern NJ, NYC and Long Island. But most of these showers should stay to south.

Later this afternoon, skies will begin clearing behind the cold front. Downsloping northwest winds and more sunshine, will help temperatures rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s, over most of the region. Winds could gust up to between 25 to 30 mph in some spots this afternoon. Then mostly clear skies and lighter winds are expected for tonight, high pressure builds into region. Temperatures will drop into upper 30s over interior  to middle 40s near the coast for overnight lows.

For Tuesday, a cooler, martime airmass with light onshore winds will be over region. But it will still be pleasant, for this time year with dry conditions. High pressure at the surface and aloft will support mostly sunny skies and high temperatures will range from the mid-upper 50s to lower 60s across the entire region. Warmest areas will likely be further inland over NJ/PA, with less marine influence. These temperatures are just near or slightly below normal for this time of year.

Clear to partly cloudy skies are likely Tuesday night with overnight lows again in upper 30s to lower to middle 40s.  Then more clouds may mix with sunshine on Wednesday, with increasing mid-level warm advection the region. Clouds and more onshore winds from southeast direction will keep temperatures still in mid-upper 50s to lower 60s for highs across the region.

A more active Pacific jet again, will result in more unsettled, wetter weather pattern for the rest of the week. Some showers are possible from late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning frontal boundary from the north sinks southward into the region. Then a more organized, deeper area low pressure, associated with shortwave trough from the Ohio Valley, will be running eastward along this frontal boundary. This will likely cause more rainfall on late Thursday into Friday.

We will likely be fine tuning details all week, with some timing and evolution differences on the models. But if the low tracks late far enough north, this will support more the region warm sector by Thursday night or Friday morning. This could mean instability for some convection with heavy rainfall and rumbles of thunder. On the other hand, if it remains further south, it will be cooler with more steadier periods of rain likely. If the low strengthens, more dynamics will be around for significant rainfall. Overall, at this time, forecast confidence is low on heavy rainfall totals and any flooding hazards, late this week.

 

Some cooler and drier weather could return behind this early part of the weekend. But we then have to watch for another storm system to impact the region later in the weekend or early next week. It’s very early, but model and ensemble guidance indicates this could larger storm system that developing along the East Coast with deeper trough. If this storm system comes together, and tracks close enough,  it could mean more heavy rainfall, for Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions by early next week.

So enjoy the drier weather mostly over next few days. A more dreary, cooler and wetter weather pattern that we saw for a couple weeks March, is likely to  return starting later this week. Stay tuned for more zone forecast and other updates on this unfolding pattern throughout the week!