John Homenuk

4.25 PM Zones: Rain continues, warmer times ahead

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Scattered showers with embedded heavy downpours have impacted a large majority of the area this morning, and will continue to do so during the early afternoon hours. Forecast models and regional observations are aligned in the idea that an area of steadier, heavier rain will begin to approach the region this afternoon. The rain may be torrential at times, with rapid rainfall amounts leading to localized flooding.

This rainfall will be occurring as a result of a strengthening low level jet, or the movement of air in the lower levels of the atmosphere. The strong low level jet is associated with a strong system aloft, passing along the East Coast today. The low level jet will transport moisture into the region rapidly, and enhance lift to help develop precipitation from southeast to northwest during the early to mid afternoon.

Forecast models show very heavy rain impacting the region later this afternoon.

Forecast models show very heavy rain impacting the region later this afternoon.

The result will be, as mentioned, periods of steady and heavy rainfall. Localized flooding will be possible, especially in poor drainage and low-lying areas. However, the relatively quick movement of the low level jet overall should act to preclude an otherwise widespread threat for flooding. The rain will continue intermittently through the afternoon and evening hours even after this area of heaviest rain passes.

The storm system will gradually shift to the north tonight, and showers will become more intermittent again through Wednesday morning. Over time (very slowly) the system will lose its grip on the area’s weather. But not before clouds, showers and fog stick around in the area’s forecast through at least Wednesday and probably into parts of Thursday morning.

It is after that point when we will begin to reap the benefits of a building ridge in the atmospheres mid and upper level levels. Warm, southerly winds will begin to advect anomalously high temperatures into the region on Thursday and Friday, with temperatures averaging well above normal into the weekend. We’re watching the potential for a backdoor cold front later in the weekend, but temperatures are likely to approach 80 degrees in some locations before it arrives.

Stay tuned for details on the upcoming pattern including the presence of warmth and potential for unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms to continue into early next week!